Very interesting. I hadn't realized how consistent Adama's pattern of short-term, personal thinking was until you pointed it out. And I completely agree with your other post about Roslin; Schliemann finding Troy is a perfect comparison.

The BSG episode Hand of the Gods introduces a prophecy which gets two very different interpretations, one by Elosha, the human priestess, after Roslin confides in her about her vision, and one by Six, given to Baltar at the end of the episode. Which one, if either, is the right one? Or was it just one big coincidence?

I didn't think the two interpretations were in conflict. Elosha quotes a verse of scripture that says the dying leader will be given a vision of "serpents number two and ten as a sign of things to come." Six quotes a different one, "led by serpents numbering two and ten," which she (or rather Baltar) interprets as referring to the Vipers. The assault on the refinery is the thing to come of which Roslin's vision is the sign, so the two interpretations actually reinforce each other.

That correspondence makes me lean toward believing that the prophecies have a real predictive value, independent of the Cylons' manipulating events to correspond with them. I can imagine that the Cylons managed to put a chip in Roslin's head at some point prior to their invasion and are feeding her specific visions, but it's harder to imagine how they could have manipulated events so precisely that there'd be exactly twelve Vipers in the final assault.

As for the Arrow of Apollo, I still suspect the clue to Earth's location will turn out to be a metaphorical arrow rather than a literal one. I thought it was going to have something to do with Lee, but now I'm wondering if it has something to do with Kobol's sun. Those ruins do bear a vague resemblance to Stonehenge; maybe there's an alignment coming up?