Entry tags:
January Meme: Kingdom Swaps
I wll say something about the swap suggestion that inspired this question at the end, because I have my own opinion about it, unsurprisingly, but first, here are some spontanous 18th Century ideas from yours truly. I tried to pick contemporaries of the same generation:
Kingdom Swap 1: Friedrich Wilhelm I. (Prussia) swaps with his first cousin George II (Britain and Hannover)
This fulfills one of FW's dreams, if some of his sidekicks are to be believed. FW as King of Great Britain was an actual possibility for a hot minute, because the childless William of Orange (and III of England) considered adopting him. (They were doubly related.) (This would not have conflicted with the Act of Succession by Parliament settling the English crown on Sophia of Hannover (granddaughter of James I and VI) and her issue, because FW was Sophia's grandson as much as G2. But if William of Orange had adopted him, there would have been no George I (Sophie's son), let alone a G2 (and so forth); the Brits would have gotten a Hohenzollern instead of a Hannover dynasty. (Making G2 the King in Prussia, otoh, has no logical AU explanation, but never mind, we're in it for the crack and the fun.) In our timeline, FW and cousin G2 loathed each other ever since they were boys and FW, despite being a few years younger, managed to beat no longer future G2 up. This set the tone for their entire relationship, which included such highlights as George marrying FW's first crush, the two of them almost fighting a personal combat style duel as monarchs in 1729 and the interminable marriage negotiations between their two oldest kids which contributed to the disastrous escape attempt of future Frederick the Great.
How would it have worked out if they'd swapped kingdoms: welllllll. On the one hand, FW might have been an awful human being, but he was one of the hardest workers ever to sit on a throne. There's a reason why even today, you have some historians making the case that in terms of his "interior" politics (not sure that's the right word for Innenpolitik), he was the best King Prussia ever had, including his son (i.e. Frederick the Great). (This also says something about the not so great Prussian Kings that came later, and then the Emperors, good lord, the Emperors, of course.) He took over a newly declared kingdom and former duchy and barony in considerable financial distress, which consisted of a couple of territories with no shared border, and left it financially and economically sound, with a well filled treasury, lots of new schools and hospitals founded (and state-financed), not to mention that he was the monarch to make school attendance obligatory. And for all that he had a fetish for the military (to put it mildly), he actually was not repeat, not set on starting actual wars. (As a young man, he participated in one of the bloodiest battles in European history after the Thirty Years War and before WWI, the battle of Malplaquet, which was part of the War of the Spanish Succession. This is believed to be the cause of him not starting any wars of his own but only providing his perfectly drilled troops for the various pan-European Wars like the one of the Polish Succession where they fought as part of the HRE (to simplify it). And he wasn't a hypocrite with his austerity programs; he cut down all court expenses and shut down royal residences left by his opulence loving father and grandfather except for a very few. As FW had been the kind of prince who gets a nice bit of real estate and hunting lodge by his parents at age 10 and manages to make it self sufficient and exporting goods by the time he's grown up, freaking out his parents by the fact he's an enthusiastic bookkeeper, I think that trait of his would survive any transplant.
On the other hand: that temper. Good lord, that temper. I mean, the Hannover Georges weren't wonders of stoicism, either, and the father and son loathing through the generations would remain equal, but none of the Georges were throwing their teachers down the stairs before they reached puberty. I think FW would do badly with the whole (relatively new, post Glorious Revolution) constitutional monarch part. Convinced he knew best, he would: lecture the Archbishop of Canterbury on how to be a proper Protestant (none of that High Church Popery for FW!), tell Parliament he had a couple of laws envisioned they really needed to pass, and piss off the entire English nobility on every level in record time. As it was, the Brits were very snobbish indeed about the Hannover. (G1 wasn't a brilliant mind, but he had the avarage continental prince education, meaning he was fluent in French in addition to German, and could make conversation in Italian and Dutch, and had enough Latin to talk with some of his English ministers in it who of course could speak neither German nor French (properly) at the start. How does this show up in English memoirs? As complaints he didn't any languages. Meaning he didn't speak English.) And the Hannover cousins were trying to fit in, and bringing your avarage baroque and Rokoko expense willingness to the table. FW would have shut any royal residences in and around London safe for two (one for summer, one in town for winter), he would have expected the nobility to provide at least one son each for the army and otherwise to develop a work for the state mentality, he'd have ignored balls and sure as hell wouldn't have organized some, and while he actually liked Händel, his idea of enjoying Händel's compositions in rl was to let them be played by army musicians (to save money). He sure as hell wouldn't have sponsored any opera performances. As for the sciences, he'd have seen the sense in encouraging medical developments and anything that's useful for economics, farming, import/export, but more abstract mathematics? Art? Nah. Oh, and anyone male and tall from the Orkney islands to the southern most part of Cornwall, not to mention the Colonies, should be prepared to get kidnapped so he can serve in FW's personal regiment of Windsor Giants.
So, my guess is: after only a few years of FW, both Whigs and Tories get together to conspire with the Queen to use his next big fit of temper to declare him insane and have a Regency installed.
Meanwhile in Prussia: (No longer) G2 is an okay King for the era. No idea whether he manages to make Prussia solvent, let alone fill the treasury, but the Hannovers weren't doing badly, economy wise, while still being Princes Elector, pre Britain, so let's say he does, if not to the same extent, and far slower. He might actually go to war about Jülich/Berg (don't ask, it's an eternal claim and grudge thing for generations of German monarchs), though, since participating in the same War of the Spanish Succession FW did (also just in a single battle, though a different one) left him wanting more, not less. What he most certainly does not manage, though, is creating what people think of when they talk about "Prussian mentality". His wife, Caroline, as Queen is far more socially and culturally active than FW's wife Sophia Dorothea was, and since her marriage with George is very different from the FW/SD disaster, she gets the necessary budget to continue her mentor Sophia Charlotte's "Athens on the Spree" project. The Berlin Academy florishes. (The overall economy might not, or at least not to the same degree.) No longer G2 has the same awful relationship with his oldest son as he did in rl because that's how Hannovers (and Hohenzollern) roll, so we still might get a Prussian Crown Prince escape attempt (or successful escape?) around 1730. If no longer Fritz of Wales doesn't escape, he'll presumably get locked up for a while as well, whether in Küstrin or elsewhere, but I don't think no longer G2 would override the military tribunal and demand a death sentence for whoever helped his son. And lastly: longer Fritz of Wales wouldn't invade Silesia in 1740 (since he's not King, no longer G2 is, if their life spans are identical) when Maria Theresia inherits from her father. No longer G2 might or might not - as I said, he was more keen on actual war than FW - but like I said, it's more likely he'd go to war for Jülich/Berg instead. All of which means that while Prussia is probably one of the most important of the German states (especially since Hannover no longer has the British connection) below Austria in the 18th century, it either is on a level with or below Saxony (because Saxony still has Poland, and might make a play for Silesia in 1740 instead of Prussia). Meaning instead of Prussia becoming a European superpower, edging out Austria for most important within the (soon to be former) HRE, dominating all the other German states to the point that when German unification happens in the late 19th century, it's a Prussification, it could be Saxony instead. Or not, and Austria remains where it's at. There are just too many variables to say. But even if it is Saxony, like I said, "Prussian" mentality never develops. Yay?
Kingdom Swap 2: Stanislas I. Poniatowski (Poland) swaps with Joseph II (HRE)
Poniatowski does just fine as Holy Roman Emperor, I should think. He's reform minded, but not nearly as stubborn and my way or the high way set as Joseph, meaning he will pace his reforms better and thus will be able to keep more of them. He might also do better in the marriage department, though that's speculative, as he was never married in rl, so we don't know how he'd have behaved in an arranged marriage organized for him by other people. Whether or not he'd have clued into the fact that his first wife was actually gay and in love with his sister probably depends on whether or not he'd have fallen in love with her himself, as Poniatowski was able to delude himself considerably when in love. He definitely would not have been as hostile to wife No.2. Given that he wouldn't have been fannish about Frederick the Great and trying to imitate him, I don't think he'd have started the War of the Bavarian Succession. So, all in all: a win for Austria and the HRE!
Now, the truly dicy question is whether Poniatiowski in Joseph's place would have gone for the Polish Partition. If he would have been against it for ethical reasons even if that meant Russia and Prussia get to gain territories on their lonesomes, then together with Maria Theresia's aversion of the idea it would have meant Austria remained out of it (though Poland would still have gotten partitioned). But maybe an Austrian version of Poniatowski would have developed some territorial greed?
Meanwhile in Poland: that's easy. Joseph is absolutely unwilling to budge. He's not going to be dictated to, and certainly not by his ex! And he doesn't care whether you want his reforms or not, Polish nobility, you are going to get them! Also? Catholic Church, prepare to have any monasteries and nunneries close that don't also perform social duties (i.e. hospitals and the like). Oh, and there will be state schools, instead of Church run schools.
=> Joseph doesn't survive the year as King of Poland. Whether he'll be assassinated by his fellow Poles or by the Russians is up for debate.
Kingdom, err, Realm Swap 3: Peter the Great (Russia) swaps with Gian Gastone de' Medici (Tuscany)
(Gian Gastone was born in 1671, Peter in 1672, i.e. they were almost exact contemporaries. If you're wondering who Gian Gastone was, I wouldn't blame you, I didn't know about him until a few years ago, either: you can read about the last Medici here)
Gian Gastone loses feuding parents and especially a bigotted Dad but gains a different childhood trauma through the swap. He never has the energy to take power from his older sister and is content to remain a nominal Czar along with brother Ivan while Sofia does the actual governing, while he drinks and parties and is as out and gay as you can possibly be in that place and time. Sofia might not bother to depose or kill him - why should she, if he's content to be a puppet Czar - and would probably be a competent ruler, but Russia would not get dragged screaming into the (then) modern world. I don't think Sofia would go to war with Sweden, so no idea what that means for Karl XII. No St. Peterburg/Leningrad/St. Petersburg, of course. War with the Ottomans is probably on regardless. But Russia's involvment in European affairs doesn't happen until later. I think it would still become a superpower - the sheer land mass and population size makes it inevitable - but if Sofia doesn't change the sort of medieval state, or not to a great degree, it might take much longer.
Meanwhile in Tuscany: No joy for the Ruspanti. Otoh, Tuscany after decades of bigotry and decline under Cosimo III experiences a radical reawakening, so radical the Pope in Rome might feel threatened. Peter radically reforms the Duchy, which includes creating an army, see, and if he treats his Catholic clergy the way he treated the Orthodox clergy in rl... but then the Pope doesn't have real power anymore. Otoh, all the other European powers active in Italy - France, Spain, Savoy, Austria - are getting ever more worried, too, escpecially once Peter starts to hire mercenaries. (There are only so many recruits you can get in Tuscany.) If Peter, like Gian Gastone, is the son of a Bourbon Princess, he's going to do a Louis XIV and use that as an excuse for invading to gain territory, especially once Louis XIV's son and grandsons start to die like flies, leaving only kid future Louis XV (OR IS HE). Peter will probably end up excommunicated, but he just might manage to consolidate various Italian principalities into a sort of nation state before he's done.
...a lot of people won't survive that. Including family members, probably, I think that's inevitable with Peter. And Voltaire will definitely write his biography.
Now, what![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
thornyrose42 wrote to me was: I was listening to a podcast (You’re Dead to Me) where a comedian quipped that Peter III of Russia and Frederick the Great would have both been quite satisfied with a kingdom swap, since Peter admired Prussia so much and Frederick would not have said no to such a giant hunk of Empire.
Whether or not that is true, what do you think would be some of the best and worst kingdom swaps from your favourite periods? Whose style of governance was much better suited to another kingdom’s problems? Who managed where they were ruling but would have floundered when forced to deal with someone else’s political brew.
Peter III will use the Prussian army to go to war with Denmark because of his Holstein inheritance (as he wanted in RL with the Russian army before being deposed and killed). The Prussian army would be up to it in terms of military strength (provided until the swap, all has gone as it did in rl), but somehow I doubt Peter would be, as supreme commander. Hard to say, though, given the sixth months he ruled in rl didn't show how badly or well he'd do in that capacity (well, other than his decision to pull out of the 7 Years War, hand back the Russian conquests to Frederick and expect the Russian army to then happily invade Denmark for him, which was a no brainer). Also, I don't think Britain would be happy with Prussia engaging Denmark a century before schedule, either. Meanwhile, Denmark actually has competent ministers, if not Kings. Basically, that war ends either as a draw for that reason or as a defeat. Peter also doesn't have Frederick's charisma or PR talent of branding himself the champion of the Protestants (when it suits him) or the oppressed (ditto). His wife won't stage a coup against him, not least because Prussia doesn't allow female rule.... but his brothers might.
Meanwhile, Russia: essentially you get a male version of Catherine. (II, of course.) The one department where I have some doubts is that Catherine was smart enough to reassure everyone she's really really sincere with her conversion to the Russian Orthodox faith even when she was a teenager, whereas Frederick might have marketed himself as defender of Protestants when it was useful for war propaganda but never ever claimed to be religious himself, au contraire. And being an open Deist with disdain for Orthodoxy would not have gone down well in Russia. (Peter the Great was a Russian Russian, not a German import like Peter III was and Frederick would have been, and his arguing with the Orthodox still caused him a lot of problems.) Then again, Frederick was a survivor and a good liar, so he might have simply drawn the same conclusion Catherine did and professed sincere orthodoxy. In that case, there are no historical changes for Russia in Frederick's life time, it goes the same it did under Catherine, wars with the Ottoman and Polition partitions included. Also the half hearted attempt to liberate the serfs and then drawing back from it for identical reasons. So, no change there.
The other days
Kingdom Swap 1: Friedrich Wilhelm I. (Prussia) swaps with his first cousin George II (Britain and Hannover)
This fulfills one of FW's dreams, if some of his sidekicks are to be believed. FW as King of Great Britain was an actual possibility for a hot minute, because the childless William of Orange (and III of England) considered adopting him. (They were doubly related.) (This would not have conflicted with the Act of Succession by Parliament settling the English crown on Sophia of Hannover (granddaughter of James I and VI) and her issue, because FW was Sophia's grandson as much as G2. But if William of Orange had adopted him, there would have been no George I (Sophie's son), let alone a G2 (and so forth); the Brits would have gotten a Hohenzollern instead of a Hannover dynasty. (Making G2 the King in Prussia, otoh, has no logical AU explanation, but never mind, we're in it for the crack and the fun.) In our timeline, FW and cousin G2 loathed each other ever since they were boys and FW, despite being a few years younger, managed to beat no longer future G2 up. This set the tone for their entire relationship, which included such highlights as George marrying FW's first crush, the two of them almost fighting a personal combat style duel as monarchs in 1729 and the interminable marriage negotiations between their two oldest kids which contributed to the disastrous escape attempt of future Frederick the Great.
How would it have worked out if they'd swapped kingdoms: welllllll. On the one hand, FW might have been an awful human being, but he was one of the hardest workers ever to sit on a throne. There's a reason why even today, you have some historians making the case that in terms of his "interior" politics (not sure that's the right word for Innenpolitik), he was the best King Prussia ever had, including his son (i.e. Frederick the Great). (This also says something about the not so great Prussian Kings that came later, and then the Emperors, good lord, the Emperors, of course.) He took over a newly declared kingdom and former duchy and barony in considerable financial distress, which consisted of a couple of territories with no shared border, and left it financially and economically sound, with a well filled treasury, lots of new schools and hospitals founded (and state-financed), not to mention that he was the monarch to make school attendance obligatory. And for all that he had a fetish for the military (to put it mildly), he actually was not repeat, not set on starting actual wars. (As a young man, he participated in one of the bloodiest battles in European history after the Thirty Years War and before WWI, the battle of Malplaquet, which was part of the War of the Spanish Succession. This is believed to be the cause of him not starting any wars of his own but only providing his perfectly drilled troops for the various pan-European Wars like the one of the Polish Succession where they fought as part of the HRE (to simplify it). And he wasn't a hypocrite with his austerity programs; he cut down all court expenses and shut down royal residences left by his opulence loving father and grandfather except for a very few. As FW had been the kind of prince who gets a nice bit of real estate and hunting lodge by his parents at age 10 and manages to make it self sufficient and exporting goods by the time he's grown up, freaking out his parents by the fact he's an enthusiastic bookkeeper, I think that trait of his would survive any transplant.
On the other hand: that temper. Good lord, that temper. I mean, the Hannover Georges weren't wonders of stoicism, either, and the father and son loathing through the generations would remain equal, but none of the Georges were throwing their teachers down the stairs before they reached puberty. I think FW would do badly with the whole (relatively new, post Glorious Revolution) constitutional monarch part. Convinced he knew best, he would: lecture the Archbishop of Canterbury on how to be a proper Protestant (none of that High Church Popery for FW!), tell Parliament he had a couple of laws envisioned they really needed to pass, and piss off the entire English nobility on every level in record time. As it was, the Brits were very snobbish indeed about the Hannover. (G1 wasn't a brilliant mind, but he had the avarage continental prince education, meaning he was fluent in French in addition to German, and could make conversation in Italian and Dutch, and had enough Latin to talk with some of his English ministers in it who of course could speak neither German nor French (properly) at the start. How does this show up in English memoirs? As complaints he didn't any languages. Meaning he didn't speak English.) And the Hannover cousins were trying to fit in, and bringing your avarage baroque and Rokoko expense willingness to the table. FW would have shut any royal residences in and around London safe for two (one for summer, one in town for winter), he would have expected the nobility to provide at least one son each for the army and otherwise to develop a work for the state mentality, he'd have ignored balls and sure as hell wouldn't have organized some, and while he actually liked Händel, his idea of enjoying Händel's compositions in rl was to let them be played by army musicians (to save money). He sure as hell wouldn't have sponsored any opera performances. As for the sciences, he'd have seen the sense in encouraging medical developments and anything that's useful for economics, farming, import/export, but more abstract mathematics? Art? Nah. Oh, and anyone male and tall from the Orkney islands to the southern most part of Cornwall, not to mention the Colonies, should be prepared to get kidnapped so he can serve in FW's personal regiment of Windsor Giants.
So, my guess is: after only a few years of FW, both Whigs and Tories get together to conspire with the Queen to use his next big fit of temper to declare him insane and have a Regency installed.
Meanwhile in Prussia: (No longer) G2 is an okay King for the era. No idea whether he manages to make Prussia solvent, let alone fill the treasury, but the Hannovers weren't doing badly, economy wise, while still being Princes Elector, pre Britain, so let's say he does, if not to the same extent, and far slower. He might actually go to war about Jülich/Berg (don't ask, it's an eternal claim and grudge thing for generations of German monarchs), though, since participating in the same War of the Spanish Succession FW did (also just in a single battle, though a different one) left him wanting more, not less. What he most certainly does not manage, though, is creating what people think of when they talk about "Prussian mentality". His wife, Caroline, as Queen is far more socially and culturally active than FW's wife Sophia Dorothea was, and since her marriage with George is very different from the FW/SD disaster, she gets the necessary budget to continue her mentor Sophia Charlotte's "Athens on the Spree" project. The Berlin Academy florishes. (The overall economy might not, or at least not to the same degree.) No longer G2 has the same awful relationship with his oldest son as he did in rl because that's how Hannovers (and Hohenzollern) roll, so we still might get a Prussian Crown Prince escape attempt (or successful escape?) around 1730. If no longer Fritz of Wales doesn't escape, he'll presumably get locked up for a while as well, whether in Küstrin or elsewhere, but I don't think no longer G2 would override the military tribunal and demand a death sentence for whoever helped his son. And lastly: longer Fritz of Wales wouldn't invade Silesia in 1740 (since he's not King, no longer G2 is, if their life spans are identical) when Maria Theresia inherits from her father. No longer G2 might or might not - as I said, he was more keen on actual war than FW - but like I said, it's more likely he'd go to war for Jülich/Berg instead. All of which means that while Prussia is probably one of the most important of the German states (especially since Hannover no longer has the British connection) below Austria in the 18th century, it either is on a level with or below Saxony (because Saxony still has Poland, and might make a play for Silesia in 1740 instead of Prussia). Meaning instead of Prussia becoming a European superpower, edging out Austria for most important within the (soon to be former) HRE, dominating all the other German states to the point that when German unification happens in the late 19th century, it's a Prussification, it could be Saxony instead. Or not, and Austria remains where it's at. There are just too many variables to say. But even if it is Saxony, like I said, "Prussian" mentality never develops. Yay?
Kingdom Swap 2: Stanislas I. Poniatowski (Poland) swaps with Joseph II (HRE)
Poniatowski does just fine as Holy Roman Emperor, I should think. He's reform minded, but not nearly as stubborn and my way or the high way set as Joseph, meaning he will pace his reforms better and thus will be able to keep more of them. He might also do better in the marriage department, though that's speculative, as he was never married in rl, so we don't know how he'd have behaved in an arranged marriage organized for him by other people. Whether or not he'd have clued into the fact that his first wife was actually gay and in love with his sister probably depends on whether or not he'd have fallen in love with her himself, as Poniatowski was able to delude himself considerably when in love. He definitely would not have been as hostile to wife No.2. Given that he wouldn't have been fannish about Frederick the Great and trying to imitate him, I don't think he'd have started the War of the Bavarian Succession. So, all in all: a win for Austria and the HRE!
Now, the truly dicy question is whether Poniatiowski in Joseph's place would have gone for the Polish Partition. If he would have been against it for ethical reasons even if that meant Russia and Prussia get to gain territories on their lonesomes, then together with Maria Theresia's aversion of the idea it would have meant Austria remained out of it (though Poland would still have gotten partitioned). But maybe an Austrian version of Poniatowski would have developed some territorial greed?
Meanwhile in Poland: that's easy. Joseph is absolutely unwilling to budge. He's not going to be dictated to, and certainly not by his ex! And he doesn't care whether you want his reforms or not, Polish nobility, you are going to get them! Also? Catholic Church, prepare to have any monasteries and nunneries close that don't also perform social duties (i.e. hospitals and the like). Oh, and there will be state schools, instead of Church run schools.
=> Joseph doesn't survive the year as King of Poland. Whether he'll be assassinated by his fellow Poles or by the Russians is up for debate.
Kingdom, err, Realm Swap 3: Peter the Great (Russia) swaps with Gian Gastone de' Medici (Tuscany)
(Gian Gastone was born in 1671, Peter in 1672, i.e. they were almost exact contemporaries. If you're wondering who Gian Gastone was, I wouldn't blame you, I didn't know about him until a few years ago, either: you can read about the last Medici here)
Gian Gastone loses feuding parents and especially a bigotted Dad but gains a different childhood trauma through the swap. He never has the energy to take power from his older sister and is content to remain a nominal Czar along with brother Ivan while Sofia does the actual governing, while he drinks and parties and is as out and gay as you can possibly be in that place and time. Sofia might not bother to depose or kill him - why should she, if he's content to be a puppet Czar - and would probably be a competent ruler, but Russia would not get dragged screaming into the (then) modern world. I don't think Sofia would go to war with Sweden, so no idea what that means for Karl XII. No St. Peterburg/Leningrad/St. Petersburg, of course. War with the Ottomans is probably on regardless. But Russia's involvment in European affairs doesn't happen until later. I think it would still become a superpower - the sheer land mass and population size makes it inevitable - but if Sofia doesn't change the sort of medieval state, or not to a great degree, it might take much longer.
Meanwhile in Tuscany: No joy for the Ruspanti. Otoh, Tuscany after decades of bigotry and decline under Cosimo III experiences a radical reawakening, so radical the Pope in Rome might feel threatened. Peter radically reforms the Duchy, which includes creating an army, see, and if he treats his Catholic clergy the way he treated the Orthodox clergy in rl... but then the Pope doesn't have real power anymore. Otoh, all the other European powers active in Italy - France, Spain, Savoy, Austria - are getting ever more worried, too, escpecially once Peter starts to hire mercenaries. (There are only so many recruits you can get in Tuscany.) If Peter, like Gian Gastone, is the son of a Bourbon Princess, he's going to do a Louis XIV and use that as an excuse for invading to gain territory, especially once Louis XIV's son and grandsons start to die like flies, leaving only kid future Louis XV (OR IS HE). Peter will probably end up excommunicated, but he just might manage to consolidate various Italian principalities into a sort of nation state before he's done.
...a lot of people won't survive that. Including family members, probably, I think that's inevitable with Peter. And Voltaire will definitely write his biography.
Now, what
thornyrose42 wrote to me was: I was listening to a podcast (You’re Dead to Me) where a comedian quipped that Peter III of Russia and Frederick the Great would have both been quite satisfied with a kingdom swap, since Peter admired Prussia so much and Frederick would not have said no to such a giant hunk of Empire.Whether or not that is true, what do you think would be some of the best and worst kingdom swaps from your favourite periods? Whose style of governance was much better suited to another kingdom’s problems? Who managed where they were ruling but would have floundered when forced to deal with someone else’s political brew.
Peter III will use the Prussian army to go to war with Denmark because of his Holstein inheritance (as he wanted in RL with the Russian army before being deposed and killed). The Prussian army would be up to it in terms of military strength (provided until the swap, all has gone as it did in rl), but somehow I doubt Peter would be, as supreme commander. Hard to say, though, given the sixth months he ruled in rl didn't show how badly or well he'd do in that capacity (well, other than his decision to pull out of the 7 Years War, hand back the Russian conquests to Frederick and expect the Russian army to then happily invade Denmark for him, which was a no brainer). Also, I don't think Britain would be happy with Prussia engaging Denmark a century before schedule, either. Meanwhile, Denmark actually has competent ministers, if not Kings. Basically, that war ends either as a draw for that reason or as a defeat. Peter also doesn't have Frederick's charisma or PR talent of branding himself the champion of the Protestants (when it suits him) or the oppressed (ditto). His wife won't stage a coup against him, not least because Prussia doesn't allow female rule.... but his brothers might.
Meanwhile, Russia: essentially you get a male version of Catherine. (II, of course.) The one department where I have some doubts is that Catherine was smart enough to reassure everyone she's really really sincere with her conversion to the Russian Orthodox faith even when she was a teenager, whereas Frederick might have marketed himself as defender of Protestants when it was useful for war propaganda but never ever claimed to be religious himself, au contraire. And being an open Deist with disdain for Orthodoxy would not have gone down well in Russia. (Peter the Great was a Russian Russian, not a German import like Peter III was and Frederick would have been, and his arguing with the Orthodox still caused him a lot of problems.) Then again, Frederick was a survivor and a good liar, so he might have simply drawn the same conclusion Catherine did and professed sincere orthodoxy. In that case, there are no historical changes for Russia in Frederick's life time, it goes the same it did under Catherine, wars with the Ottoman and Polition partitions included. Also the half hearted attempt to liberate the serfs and then drawing back from it for identical reasons. So, no change there.
The other days
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Re: Elizabeth and Mary, I think it very much would depend when the swap happens, because so much of Elizabeth's and Mary's personalities and their different approach to queenship (queendom?) was due to their very different upbringings. Mary literally became a queen as a baby. There was never a moment in her life when she didn't know she was Queen and always would be. And given she was a small child when she was brought to France, she also grew up with the certainty she would be Queen (Consort) of another realm, no question about it, where she would spend her most of her life. (Maybe she thought she'd return to Scotland now and then as Queen of France, and maybe she thought she'd always rule via regents as an adult, but she did think her life would be spend as Queen of France, a Catholic Queen in a Catholic country, married to the King of France. That wasn't a question, it was a certainty. The one open question for Mary when growing up would be the possibility she would also end up as Queen of England, but that depended on first Edward and then Mary and then Elizabeth being childless, and the first two were even for the Catholics around her the rightful rulers, so until Elizabeth was Queen and showed no signs of marrying, she couldn't have seriously counted on it.
All of which mmakes inevitably for a different personality than if she'd have lived like young Elizabeth did in an environment where her status entirely depended on the whim of her father - legitimate? bastard? still bastard but reinstalled into the succession? -, and where she kept getting graphic illustrations of how being a Queen consort didn't mean you couldn't end up beheaded. And even the worst case scenario aside - Elizabeth's stepmothers are such an illustration of what life can hold in store for a married to a king woman - if you play by the rules and are a model queen but your male babies don't survive, you can be discarded. If you do your consort queenly duty and provide a male baby, you can still die in childbirth. If you marry into a foreign country to seal an alliance, you can be discarded like unwanted goods if the next hot young thing shows up. And even if you manage to end up alive and a royal widow while it's your spouse who dies, and you marry the man you love, you can still die of childbirth after having found out he hit on your stepdaughter while you're pregnant.
(I mean, Mary was exposed to Catherine de' Medici being humiliated none stop by Henri II treating her as a birthing machine and Diane as his true love, which was hardly an illustration of marital happiness for royal women, but I do suspect Mary blamed this one on Catherine being not noble enough - the "merchant's daughter" quip -, and not pretty enough, as opposed to herself, and didn't see it as something she could possibly have to fear.)
Basically: Elizabeth didn't just have to learn survival skills and flexibility early on, she was constantly presented with worst case scenarios and warning signs. If Elizabeth had grown up like Mary, would she have developed the same attitudes and ways to be a Queen? Who knows...
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OMG. Now that you say this, this is obvious, and yet this never occurred to me.
Oh, but this is a fascinating AU! *chinhands* What happens if Elizabeth and Mary swap when their personalities are in fact already set? Would Elizabeth (presumably??) have figured out how not to get married to Philip? How would Elizabeth have treated Mary?
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Wrong Mary. It was Elizabeth's sister Mary who was married to Philipp of Spain. We're talking Mary Queen of Scots here who was married to a) Francis II of France, b) Henry, Lord Darnley (whom I guess you meant), c) James Hepburn Earl of Bothwell.
(Now Elizabeth's sister, Mary Tudor, had the same lessons Elizabeth had re: her father's marriages, but there really wasn't much of an alternative to marrying cousin Philip when she did. Her time of being able to give birth was running out due to her age, and Mary did hope for an heir of her body as opposed to having to pass the crown to Elizabeth. And her Habsburg cousins had been her champions ever since father Henry started to terrorize her mother because he wanted an annulment, plus of the unmarried European princes, Philip ones pretty much the best available by the time Mary became Queen. (Other than his father, whom young Mary was supposed to marry for a short while decades earlier. Now Charles V. marrying Mary in his old (for the time, he wasn't really for our days) age instead of making son Philip do so is another fascinating AU). Of course, Mary Tudor could have married one of her English subjects instead, but while this would have appeased the usual English xenophobia, it would have created anger and strive among all the nobles she didn't marry.)
But now back to Elizabeth and the other Mary:
What happens if Elizabeth and Mary swap when their personalities are in fact already set
Okay, in this case I think Elizabeth does avoid marrying Darnley, and she might even convert to get out of the situation of being a Catholic monarch in an increasingly hardcore Protestant state. However: she will still clash with John Knox (who in rl sort of mumbled a written "I didn't mean YOU" apology for the Monstrous Regiment of Women, but that was to Elizabeth, Queen of England, at a distance, whom he needed to be well disposed towars him, not to Elizabeth, Queen of Scotland, with whom he'd be struggling for power close up. And also, I'm not sure Elizabeth's method of using the marriage negotiatons game diplomatically, which gave her and England breathing space for years, would have worked with the much smaller and less powerful Scotland. The insistence that she'd marry and provide an heir among the Scottish lords would have been far, far stronger, and then she'd still have the same problem any Queen in that situation had: marry a subject and all the other nobles are pissed off, marry a foreign prince and everyone, nobles and commoners alike, hates that one as well. (Same goes for English nobles as suggested by the other Queen on the island.) Under the circumstances, Elizabeth might have gone for a continental Protestant prince regardless, though, one whom she could be sure would only spend a short time in Scotland, but those were thin on the ground. Eric of Sweden, who pursued her in rl, on paper would have looked good, but as he did go insane...
Meanwhile, Mary in Elizabeth's place with an already formed personality: marries Robert Dudley after the death of Amy Robsart, has the country in an uproar, gets deposed, I'm afraid. (Based on how Mary dealt with the Darnley fallout.) Unless she does marry her brother-in-law, Philip of Spain, immediately after her sister has died and before the Dudley situation arises, but I don't see her doing that.)
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And also, I'm not sure Elizabeth's method of using the marriage negotiatons game diplomatically, which gave her and England breathing space for years, would have worked with the much smaller and less powerful Scotland.
Ah, this is the kind of thing I was wondering about. It's interesting to know that it wouldn't have worked so well for this use case. Ugh, it's nice she avoided Darnley, but it sounds like she wouldn't have had great options... I suppose it's a good thing then for her, at least, that it wasn't the switched case.
Meanwhile, Mary in Elizabeth's place with an already formed personality: marries Robert Dudley after the death of Amy Robsart, has the country in an uproar, gets deposed, I'm afraid. (Based on how Mary dealt with the Darnley fallout.)
Okay, I snorted. Oh Mary.
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At university I mostly focused on British and American history, so the HRE has never been exactly my strong suit. However, I am currently reading Monika Czernin's Der Kaiser reist inkognito which deals with Joseph II's travels, so I am wondering if there is any chance you have read Czernin's book as well. And if so, what would be your opinion of it.
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But what a fun thought exercise! thank you for writing it all up!
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https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-goose-stepping-redcoats-the-history-of-the-house-of-brandenburg-in-britain.545122/
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OMG of course :P
The Berlin Academy florishes.
Well, this sounds good :D :P
Poniatowski does just fine as Holy Roman Emperor, I should think. He's reform minded, but not nearly as stubborn and my way or the high way set as Joseph, meaning he will pace his reforms better and thus will be able to keep more of them.
*waves Poniatowski pom-poms*
as Poniatowski was able to delude himself considerably when in love.
Hmm. Perhaps he would still have been in love with Sophie/Catherine, and paradoxically therefore treated Isabella better?
So, all in all: a win for Austria and the HRE!
*waves pom-poms some more*
Now, the truly dicy question is whether Poniatiowski in Joseph's place would have gone for the Polish Partition. If he would have been against it for ethical reasons even if that meant Russia and Prussia get to gain territories on their lonesomes, then together with Maria Theresia's aversion of the idea it would have meant Austria remained out of it (though Poland would still have gotten partitioned). But maybe an Austrian version of Poniatowski would have developed some territorial greed?
I like to think that Poniatowski would have been against it for ethical reasons. But perhaps he would have wanted it for realpolitik reasons, or been talked into it as MT was?
=> Joseph doesn't survive the year as King of Poland. Whether he'll be assassinated by his fellow Poles or by the Russians is up for debate.
LOLOLOLOL oh never change, Vienna!Joe!
Peter will probably end up excommunicated, but he just might manage to consolidate various Italian principalities into a sort of nation state before he's done.
...a lot of people won't survive that. Including family members, probably, I think that's inevitable with Peter. And Voltaire will definitely write his biography.
ahahaha this sounds unpleasant for them but also a wildly fascinating AU!
His wife won't stage a coup against him, not least because Prussia doesn't allow female rule.... but his brothers might.
I am here for the AU where Heinrich totally stages a coup against his brother Peter IIIIn that case, there are no historical changes for Russia in Frederick's life time
But what about the diplomatic relationship between Russian!Frederick and King coup!Heinrich, who somehow seem oddly similar to each other?? :D
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Hmm. Perhaps he would still have been in love with Sophie/Catherine, and paradoxically therefore treated Isabella better?
He'd have to have met her! Which isn't a given if he's in Joseph's position. (Joseph also met Catherine and was impressed, but many years and already a Partition later.)
But what about the diplomatic relationship between Russian!Frederick and King coup!Heinrich, who somehow seem oddly similar to each other?? :D
They should have very interesting summits!
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There's a reason why even today, you have some historians making the case that in terms of his "interior" politics (not sure that's the right word for Innenpolitik)
I would translate it as "domestic policy", contrasted in English with "foreign policy".
Convinced he knew best, he would: lecture the Archbishop of Canterbury on how to be a proper Protestant (none of that High Church Popery for FW!), tell Parliament he had a couple of laws envisioned they really needed to pass, and piss off the entire English nobility on every level in record time.
Of course he would!
Oh, and anyone male and tall from the Orkney islands to the southern most part of Cornwall, not to mention the Colonies, should be prepared to get kidnapped so he can serve in FW's personal regiment of Windsor Giants.
LOLOLOL!
Do you think he would have gone for Windsor specifically (afaik, G2 didn't), or was that just something you picked because it would be familiar to modern readers?
she gets the necessary budget to continue her mentor Sophia Charlotte's "Athens on the Spree" project
Agreed!
(because Saxony still has Poland, and might make a play for Silesia in 1740 instead of Prussia)
My first response was going to be "diplomatically, yes, but they don't have the army," but then I remembered that half their considerations consisted of being trapped between superpowers Prussia and Austria. If Prussia isn't a superpower to the same degree...maybe a Bavarian-French-Saxon-Prussian alliance breaks out, and Saxony makes a bid for Silesia militarily.
I still say MT kicks their butts, though. :P The Saxon army and treasury (and personalities) in AU!1740 were not the Prussian army and treasury and personalities of RL!1740.
Meaning instead of Prussia becoming a European superpower, edging out Austria for most important within the (soon to be former) HRE, dominating all the other German states to the point that when German unification happens in the late 19th century, it's a Prussification, it could be Saxony instead. Or not, and Austria remains where it's at.
Or Hanover, if this is a swap and Fritz becomes king of GB and elector of Hanover in 1740? :P
Now, the truly dicy question is whether Poniatiowski in Joseph's place would have gone for the Polish Partition. If he would have been against it for ethical reasons
Interesting question. If it was Kaunitz against Poniatowski and MT, would realpolitik still have prevailed? Not sure.
=> Joseph doesn't survive the year as King of Poland. Whether he'll be assassinated by his fellow Poles or by the Russians is up for debate.
I'm with you on this! It's a race between Repnin and the Czartoryskis. (Murder on the Warsaw Express?)
Kingdom, err, Realm Swap 3: Peter the Great (Russia) swaps with Gian Gastone de' Medici (Tuscany)
Hahaha, is it bad that my first thought was, "...well, there's no shortage of alcohol in either place, so that doesn't change."? :P
Gian Gastone loses feuding parents and especially a bigotted Dad but gains a different childhood trauma through the swap. He never has the energy to take power from his older sister and is content to remain a nominal Czar along with brother Ivan while Sofia does the actual governing
Sounds about right.
Meanwhile in Tuscany: No joy for the Ruspanti.
Lol!!
Peter will probably end up excommunicated, but he just might manage to consolidate various Italian principalities into a sort of nation state before he's done.
The thing that comes to my mind is the sudden rise of the Tuscan navy, and the subsequent wars with first neighboring states that have good ports, and then with the Turks!
Peter III of Russia and Frederick the Great would have both been quite satisfied with a kingdom swap, since Peter admired Prussia so much and Frederick would not have said no to such a giant hunk of Empire.
This is where I start running up against details. In 1762? Peter III, yes, 100%, he would have dreamed of that. Fritz, with his back to the wall in the Seven Years' War, fighting for survival? Is either too emotionally shackled to his responsibilities in Prussia, or else tries to have his cake and eat it too. Also, while Fritz had clearly learned to respect the Russian army by then, I'm not sure if land and population would have compensated for his low opinion of Russian civilization.
But say it was forced on him. I'm...this is really weird. I'm trying to get inside his head, and his terrier like inability to let go that makes me think he's still clinging to the idea that Prussia is his is contending with wondering if realpolitik wins out and he just accepts that Russia is the future and doesn't do anything stupid like try to give East Prussia back to the Prussians.
But say his emotional attachment was wiped too, and he's starting with more of a clean slate, more like Catherine. In that case, I agree with you that the future of Russia looks rather similar, with the difference that he's campaigning personally in Ottoman territory rather than just sending Potemkin, and that I don't know who's king of Poland!
Also, it sounds like you envision Catherine going with Peter to Prussia, meaning presumably that EC would go to Russia, but that Heinrich would stay in Prussia and maybe stop Peter from doing anything mind-numblingly stupid?
Like I said, a lot depends on the details: if it's *just* Fritz and Peter who swap, how does the Catherine/Fritz marriage go? Is Fritz finally tested on whether his belief that a woman should be able to cheat if the husband neglects her applies to his wife too?
All fun to think about, this was my favorite day of the January meme!
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Do you think he would have gone for Windsor specifically (afaik, G2 didn't), or was that just something you picked because it would be familiar to modern readers?
Mostly for the name recognition factor. But I do think Windsor would tempt FW as a residence. It's a former fortress, and as opposed to, say, Greenwich or Richmond closer to the heart of the government action in London. Also, given that the late Queen much prefered it to Buckingham Palace, I guess it might have been easier to live in in the 18th century as well.
(Kew isn't an option yet, because it was G3 who really rebuild that as the classic Georgian residence.)
Why not Hampton Court: way too big and decorative for FW's taste!
I still say MT kicks their butts, though. :P The Saxon army and treasury (and personalities) in AU!1740 were not the Prussian army and treasury and personalities of RL!1740.
Same here! I like you, Saxons, but you don't compare.
Re: the Peter III and Fritz thing, that's why I never would have picked that example on my own and went for same generation monarchs instead who could have swapped at the start of their reigns. If Fritz has already been monarch of Prussia for decades, it's another issue. So I assumed a clean slate.
Like I said, a lot depends on the details: if it's *just* Fritz and Peter who swap, how does the Catherine/Fritz marriage go? Is Fritz finally tested on whether his belief that a woman should be able to cheat if the husband neglects her applies to his wife too?
He would be, and I am not sure he would pass that test. I also suspect he might change the Russian inheritance laws that allow women to become the ruling monarch, because it would have occured to Fritz, if he was married to Catherine, that his wife had the brains, the ruthlessness and the ambition to try something, with the example of several female rulers and several coups in the decades earlier.
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It was Queen Anne's favorite residence!
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